CANTON — John F. Harris might not have the best record for his political predictions — it wasn't long ago that he thought Hillary Clinton would be a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, after all — but he sees a huge win coming for Barack Obama in November.
The Politico editor-in-chief spoke Monday to a group of 85 students and community members at St. Lawrence University's Eben Holden Conference Center night to discuss what he sees as a fundamental shift in the electorate since 2004.
"Republicans are on the verge of a rout that could leave them virtually powerless in Washington. The era of trench warfare between the parties might be over," Mr. Harris told the audience. "I'll be back by Thanksgiving if I'm wrong."
In his talk, "47 Months and One to Go: The 2008 Presidential Election," the veteran journalist pointed out many factors that lead him to believe the country is on the cusp of a generational shift.
"We are on the brink of an Electoral College blowout, and there is a possibility for huge Democratic gains in the Senate, which means Barack Obama could be the most powerful president we've seen since George W. Bush in the years immediately following 9-11, or Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964," Mr. Harris said. "That shows how starkly the premises of national politics have changed."
Voters are simply concerned with different things than they were in 2004, the Rochester native said.
He said the majority of Americans now see the economy as the number one issue compared to the war on terror, which dominated the last presidential election, while cultural issues like gay marriage don't look poised to fuel conservative turnout.
And while President Bush's approval ratings sink through the floor, the number of registered Republicans has also dropped. Finally, Mr. Harris said, Democrats have pulled ahead in the day-to-day "horse race" by smoothing out their message — and sticking to it.
"Reporters like me that started covering politics in the 1980s thought Republicans were better at the game. They were skilled in the 'dark arts,'" he said. "This year, what's different is we've found a candidate who at first blush looks to be more vulnerable because of his background, but turns out to be much more disciplined and effective at controlling his public image."
The Republican Party's "Machiavellian" style of attack politics hasn't struck a chord in this election, Mr. Harris said, leaving John McCain to shift strategies nearly weekly.
The editor, who got his start at the Washington Post in 1985, said he could turn out to be very wrong. There's a possibility that the economy could stabilize, changing the national conversation, and that people who tell pollsters they plan to vote for the first African-American president may change their minds in the voting booth.
"Unless Obama is up 10 points, there's no way we're going to bet the mortgage of our house on him — even though it's worthless now anyway," he said.
In his remarks, Mr. Harris also poked fun at Canton's proximity to Canada.
"Everybody in the St. Lawrence community can feel sure that you're qualified by the Sarah Palin standard to be vice president," he said.
He also turned the discussion, which was part of SLU's Contemporary Issues Forum, to the changing face of the media.
"The era of general interest publications, I don't know if it's over, but its days are numbered," Mr. Harris said. "The nonstop nature of the news cycle has done something to all of us and how we digest the news, though. It has shredded our sense of perspective and memory."
That's a change Mr. Harris anticipated when he founded The Politico, which is published as a Washington, D.C.-based newspaper in addition to its extensive Web presence.
Daniel F. Sullivan, St. Lawrence's president, met Mr. Harris when he was a faculty member and the young journalist was getting his start on the school newspaper at Carleton College, Northfield, Minn.
"I knew then that John would become a great journalist and I wasn't wrong," Mr. Sullivan said.
