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Poll: 16% of New Yorkers considering leaving state
By TOM WANAMAKER
TIMES ALBANY CORRESPONDENT
TUESDAY, JULY 15, 2008

ALBANY — Sixteen percent of New Yorkers are so fed up with the state's economy that they are at least considering leaving the state, if not actively planning to do so.

In a survey released Monday, the Siena Research Institute found that 7 percent of New Yorkers "would like to move out of New York state as quickly as I can," while 9 percent of state residents would leave "unless conditions in New York state get better."

Among upstate residents, those totals were 6 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

"If 7 percent of New Yorkers left the state, it would be an exodus of well over one million people, with nearly two million more threatening to leave if conditions in the state do not improve," said Steven Greenberg, SRI spokesman.

Last week, the U.S. Census Bureau released estimates showing year-over-year population declines in the upstate cities of Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany, though New York City and the state as a whole actually gained 15,700 residents.

Upstaters, like all New Yorkers, continue to be frustrated with the state's high tax burden and are clamoring for relief.

The Siena poll found that 75 percent of upstaters surveyed support a property tax "circuit breaker," which would tie tax payments to household income, while 69 percent support a property tax cap. If given a choice between the two, upstate voters favor the circuit breaker by 55 percent to 35 percent.

A spokesman for the Working Families Party said this is "no surprise."

"Working and middle-class New Yorkers are choking on property taxes, and only the so-called 'circuit breaker' approach will actually lower anyone's taxes," said Daniel Cantor, the party's executive director. "A circuit breaker does that by giving property tax relief based on your family's ability to pay.

"Of course, we need to pay for it, and the right way is to modestly increase the rate at which very wealthy New Yorkers pay income taxes," Mr. Cantor said. "If you do these two things — a circuit breaker for working and middle-class people and a high-end personal income tax increase on people earning more than $300,000 a year — you'll start to get the state's tax system back in balance. Right now, it's totally out of whack."

Given a choice between a property tax cap or eliminating 32 cents of state fuel taxes, upstaters are evenly split with 47 percent favoring the fuel tax elimination and 46 percent wanting the cap.

Yet despite the growing chorus for Empire State tax reform, upstaters don't believe their state politicians are listening. Among upstaters, only 3 percent are "confident" that "the governor and the Legislature will enact legislation this year" to address soaring property taxes; 22 percent are "somewhat confident" while 41 percent are "not very confident" and 31 percent are "not at all confident."

Forty-seven percent of upstate residents continue to believe the state is headed "in the wrong direction," versus 30 percent who say New York is "on the right track." Statewide, these numbers are much closer, at 36 percent and 39 percent, respectively.

Gov. David A. Paterson continues to be perceived in a generally positive light; among upstaters, 57 percent view him favorably while 14 percent see him unfavorably and 28 percent have no opinion. Regarding his job performance, 9 percent of upstate residents say he the governor is doing an "excellent" job, 43 percent say "good," 34 percent say "fair," and 7 percent say "poor."

Upstaters are evenly split, 44 percent to 44 percent, as to whether it would be better for Republicans to keep control of the state Senate, over which they hold a narrow 32-30 majority going into November's elections, or whether to have a Democratic-controlled Senate.

The survey was conducted July 7 to 10 via phone calls to 626 registered New York voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

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